Exponential Curve Target Line

[radas]

Hello all, 

I'm trying to figure out how to model the following exponential curve in PBI based on averages of historical data. I have tried plotting an average of prior year results and that seems to work but I cannot get the linest/logest of that average data set so that I can plot the data on my chart automatically. This is the data I'm attempting to replicate (current formula is ($170M =$25.0169668M*exp(.14360057+.016086)*month) where .016086 is a plug to make the end result equal to $170M.

Here is my chart:

I have actuals + forecast (in green) and I'm attempting to use the linest/logest of the yellow line to create a new y(x)=b*m^x formula in order to replace the red straightlined $170M target. Any ideas?

[radas]

Hi Greg, 

Thank you, I did try linear regression on my historical averages line (yellow and dark gray), but it's unclear how to take this further and create the exponential target I'm looking for. The linear regression only creates a trendline of my historical averages for me... any tips? In excel I would take linest(ln) and logest of my average/date range to come up with my variables but I'm not sure how to do this in PBI.

The result I'm looking for is the blue exponential line drawn below:

[Greg_Deckler]

@radas Sounds like you need linear regression. There are lots of articles on it with DAX, even a default quick measure as well as a quick measure in the Quick Measure Gallery. My book, DAX Cookbook has an example of a deseasonalized linear regression. I don't have a copy with me at the moment, it is in like Chapter 8 or 12 I think. 

https://community.powerbi.com/t5/Quick-Measures-Gallery/Simple-Linear-Regression/m-p/247439#M55

DAX: Simple Linear Regression Pattern - TechNet Articles - United States (English) - TechNet Wiki (m...

Simple linear regression in DAX – XXL BI