Power BI forecast explanation - needs help

[aiyosap]

Hello community,

Hope you can explain about the forecast in Power BI.

I have a dataset and I have setup a forecast using the following value.

The first forecast (30/06/2023) is similar to the actual data point in the dataset (i.e. 42)

Just FYI, the dataset is the number of count IT supporting incident records (ServiceNOW) accumulated for the day, for example, there are a total of 42 transaction incurred on 30/06/2023.

However, when comes to second day of forecast (1/7/2023), the "Forecast 1" value become -368

Questions -

1. Why the first forecast value is a negative 368? I mean how is this possible to have a negative value IT supporting incident on 1/7/2023? How do you interpret this?
   
   
2. What is the upper bound and lower bound means? why there is negative lower bound value -745 (refer above)?

Thank You.

[aj1973 · Accepted solution]

Hi @aiyosap 

To get better results when using forecast Power BI desktop you should use a date table and use months of the date table in your graph. 

[Idrissshatila]

Hello @aiyosap ,

check the following documentations to learn more about it

Forecast in Power BI - TechnicalJockey

How to do forecasting in power bi desktop? - Dibyendu Deb

Forecast Functionality in PowerBI - Microsoft Power BI Community

Data Forecasting and Analytics with Power BI Desktop (mssqltips.com)

Creating Forward Forecasts in Power BI Using DAX - Enterprise DNA

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