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RickScanlon's avatar
RickScanlon
Frequent Visitor
2 years ago
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Selecting seasonality for forecasting daily data

Hi have read many great responses on this forum re the forecast option in Power BI but still unable to figure this specific problem type out.    I have a fact table with revenue per day by many dim...
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  • Anonymous's avatar
    Anonymous
    2 years ago

    Hi,RickScanlon I am glad to help you.
    Although I'm not very good at seasonal forecasting as a feature, I found relevant articles and tutorials about it in Power BI that I hope will be helpful to you
    URL:
    Correlation, Seasonality and Forecasting with Powe... - Microsoft Fabric Community
    Solved: Forecast Seasonality - Microsoft Fabric Community
    Power BI Forecasting: How To Do It The Right Way? (scaleupally.io)

    For the suspiciously large upper and lower bounds you mentioned, this may be due to large fluctuations in the data or some unusual values, which are taken into account when predicting the data. You can try to optimize your model data to remove outliers and make sure that the values are as smooth as possible without very large fluctuations, and it is recommended that you compare your data with a variety of time prediction tools, such as Python's Prophet library, to find the right prediction.
    You could try to make some similar test data, or upload your PBIX file without sensitive data to the forum, which will be helpful to help other users to find out the right prediction scheme for your data.

    I hope my suggestions give you good ideas, if you have any more questions, please clarify in a follow-up reply.
    Best Regards,
    Carson Jian,
    If this post helps, then please consider Accept it as the solution to help the other members find it more quickly.

RickScanlon's avatar
RickScanlon
Frequent Visitor
2 years ago

Thanks for the thoughtful response, Carson!  I really appreciate it.  I read those links before posting.  They are all very helpful, especially the first one by Greg Deckler.  I actually used running totals to smooth the data.  It's strange how small changes in seasonality can have such big impacts on the upper and lower bounds, but thankfully not on the main forecast.  I guess the PBI forecast tool is meant to be used as a helpful feature but not as a core tool for heavy forecasting.  I will stick with R for that.  I will also do some generic slope fitting measures for forecasting running totals to make a nice dynamic forecasting tool.