Normal distribution curve

[fz1]

The following is representative of the dataset I am working with: 

I also have a date table (Calendar) that contains a range of dates over several years. Data model view:

Here's a snapshot of my dashboard, where Part ["Part" column] and Delivery Date ["Date (Days)" column] are slicers, and MaxLeadTime and OrderByDate (my "output") are derived from measures:

The MaxLeadTime measure returns the highest value in the Lead Time column, by Part:  

MaxLeadTime =

AVERAGEX(

    Values('Car details'[Part]),

    CALCULATE(

        MAX('Car details'[Lead Time]),

        not ISBLANK('Car details'[Lead Time]),

        ALLEXCEPT('Car details', 'Car details'[Part])))

The OrderByDate measure calculates the latest date by which the order must be placed, as determined by the longest lead time value (unit is in months) for that Part:

OrderByDate = SELECTEDVALUE('Calendar'[Date (Days)]) - ([MaxLeadTime]*30)

As seen in the dashboard snapshot above, for Part "E" the max lead time is 10 months so if the user desires a Delivery Date of 1/6/2023, the order must be placed by 3/12/2022 as displayed in the Card. I am hoping to create a normal distribution curve for this date where users will be able to toggle between different confidence intervals to display the probabilistic dates associated with those intervals. I guess something similar to what's shown in this video, except instead of having one overarching value for mean, standard deviation, etc. mine will have several for each Part ID: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5bPVMFrUnrU&t=722s

Appreciate any guidance on this!

[v-heq-msft]

Hi @fz1 ,
Based on your description, you want to create a normal distribution curve based on the metric and display confidence intervals based on the date you selected. Please mention the data from the Calendar table so that we can help you better.
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Best regards,
Albert He

If this post helps, then please consider Accept it as the solution to help the other members find it more quickly

[fz1]

@v-heq-msft here's a snapshot of the Calendar table:

(It goes on till 2030)

Also just to clarify, I am looking for a normal distribution curve based on the date shown in the "OrderByDate" Card (which is essentially a measure). The Delivery Date slicer is pulling from the "Date (Days)" column from the Calendar table.