Issue with reproducing same outputs for my predictions

[klehar]

Hi,

I'm trying to run a python script that will essentially perform time series forecasting on my input data.

What I want is the next 12 predicted values.

I did this in jupyter and power bi both but I'm getting different values for same dates

I'm not sure what random seed needs to be set here.

Code:

import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import pypyodbc  as pyodbc
import pandas as pd 
from statsmodels.tsa.arima_model import ARMA,ARMAResults,ARIMA,ARIMAResults
from statsmodels.graphics.tsaplots import plot_acf,plot_pacf # for determining (p,q) orders
from statsmodels.tsa.holtwinters import ExponentialSmoothing

SERVER_NAME = 'm.its.corp.net'
DATABASE_NAME = 'GDB'


cnxn = pyodbc.connect(Driver='{SQL Server}', Server=SERVER_NAME , database=DATABASE_NAME,
                      trusted_connection='Yes')

cursor = cnxn.cursor()



sql_query = """
select * from mytable
"""


# With Headers
df = pd.read_sql(sql_query, cnxn,index_col='date',parse_dates=True)
#index col is required to make sure stasmodel on this dataset we need to set index frequency
df.index.freq = 'MS'

method_TESmul12 = ExponentialSmoothing(df['tcv'],trend='mul',seasonal='mul',seasonal_periods=12).fit()
range = pd.date_range('01-02-2022',periods=12,freq='MS')
predictions = method_TESmul12.forecast(12).astype(int)
predictions_range = pd.DataFrame({'Date':range, 'TCV':predictions})
predictions_range

What is wrong?
Dataset has 110 records. 2 records pasted below:

date	tcv
1/1/2013	2011131
2/1/2013	2053142

[Anonymous]

Hi @klehar ,

Could you share a sample file with us? And you can show us a screenshot with the result you want. This will make it easier for us to understand your requirements.

Best Regards,
Rico Zhou

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