Forecasting for 3 month by input multiple variables

[Carly_717]

Hi, I would like to forecast the QTY sales for the next three months in Power BI. Is there a method to achieve this? For example, I want to create a measure that forecasts the overall sales for the upcoming three months.

If I add a variable to the table, the forecasted values should adjust accordingly.

Similarly, if I add another variable, the forecasted values should dynamically update based on the new context.

Thanks in advance!

[Anonymous]

Hi @Carly_717 

The current information is not enough, we cannot provide detailed suggestions based on that. For this forecasting problem, you can consider starting from the following aspects and refine your needs.

1. Data Collection and Preparation

First, gather historical sales data for each product category and CustID. Ensure the data is organized chronologically, with monthly sales figures.

2. Choosing a Forecasting Method

Below are some common forecasting methods:

• Moving Average: Suitable for data with minimal fluctuations. Calculate the average sales over the past few months to predict future sales.
• Exponential Smoothing: Ideal for data with trends or seasonal patterns. Use weighted averages of past data to forecast future sales.
• Linear Regression Analysis: Best for data with a clear trend. Create a model that relates sales to time to predict future sales.
• Time Series Analysis: Suitable for data with complex trends and seasonal patterns. Use models like ARIMA for forecasting.

3. Performing the Forecast

Use your chosen method to forecast sales. 

4. Allocating Forecasted Values

To distribute the total forecasted sales among different product categories and CustIDs, you need to choose a method. Here are some possible methods:

• Proportional Allocation: Distribute based on each category's historical sales proportion.
• Growth Rate Allocation: Use each category's historical growth rate to forecast individual sales, then adjust to match the total forecast.
• Market Trend Adjustment: Adjust forecasts based on market trends and competitive analysis.

I recommend you refine your specific requirements first, and then consider how to use Power BI to achieve them.

Best Regards,
Jing
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[ToddChitt]

Can we assume that the 4, 5, and 6 are months? Where do the overall numbers come from (the 100, 200, etc.)? How is one month broken out by the categories (Shampoo, Lotion, etc.)?

Basically, we need more information about what data you HAVE and the RULES to get to where you want to be.