Forecasting Explanation Desired

[bw70316]

I have some data that I am trying to run some forecasting with. My boss would like to extend until 2025, which would be 76 data points from today with my monthly data. I have 104 datapoints of months dating back to July of 2010. I currently have 308. When I project out 36 months it takes me up to 347 as you will see below. When I project out 76 months, I get 305, which is a regressiong which is not what I am going for. I will likely tell my boss that we should go with the 36 month forecast, but I'd like to have an explanation as to why PBI decided that in 36 months I'll have a growth of 13% as oppose to a minor loss for 76 months?

[Greg_Deckler · Accepted solution]

I don't believe the actual models are public but read up here:

https://community.powerbi.com/t5/Desktop/Forecast-Functionality-in-PowerBI/m-p/125337#M53062

https://community.powerbi.com/t5/Desktop/Forecasting-in-Power-BI-The-Theory/m-p/366740#M165962

https://www.mssqltips.com/sqlservertip/5085/data-forecasting-and-analytics-with-power-bi-desktop/

https://powerbi.microsoft.com/en-us/blog/introducing-new-forecasting-capabilities-in-power-view-for-...

Also, you could just do it yourself. https://community.powerbi.com/t5/Quick-Measures-Gallery/De-Seasonalized-Correlation-Coefficient/m-p/...