Skip to main content
cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 

The ultimate Microsoft Fabric, Power BI, Azure AI & SQL learning event! Join us in Las Vegas from March 26-28, 2024. Use code MSCUST for a $100 discount. Register Now

Reply
PowerBI_77
Frequent Visitor

Forecasting 12 month rolling totals

Hi everyone.  A Power BI newbie here!  

I'm trying to use Power BI to provide me with a forecast for some 12 month rolling totals.  So for example, the figure for January 2008 would be the sum of figures from February 2007 up to and including January 2008.  It's my understanding that having the data arranged in 12 month rolling totals will smooth out any seasonality impact. 

 

Here is the same 12 month rolling data on two charts with different forecasting seasonality values. As you can see, the forecast is very different depending on the setting used. 

Screenshot_20190121-113019.jpg

I'm not sure what setting I should use on the SEASONALITY field on the forecast options?  Does anyone have any idea what value I should use in here please?

 

Regards,

Lee

2 REPLIES 2
Greg_Deckler
Super User
Super User

My understanding for the Seasonality field is that it needs to be set to the period of your seasonality. So, if your period is quarterly, then you should use 4, for example. 

 

Here are some links that you might find helpful:

 

https://community.powerbi.com/t5/Community-Blog/Correlation-Seasonality-and-Forecasting-with-Power-B...

https://community.powerbi.com/t5/Quick-Measures-Gallery/De-Seasonalized-Correlation-Coefficient/m-p/...

https://community.powerbi.com/t5/Desktop/Forecast-Functionality-in-PowerBI/td-p/124766


@ me in replies or I'll lose your thread!!!
Instead of a Kudo, please vote for this idea
Become an expert!: Enterprise DNA
External Tools: MSHGQM
YouTube Channel!: Microsoft Hates Greg
Latest book!:
Mastering Power BI 2nd Edition

DAX is easy, CALCULATE makes DAX hard...

Thanks for your reply Greg - much appreciated.  It's just the fact that I'm using de-seasonalised data which makes me uncertain about the seasonality setting.  If I plot the data based on monthly totals, I set the seasonality setting to 12 (and, as you say below, if I'm using quarterly data I would set it to 4) which is straight forward.  But when using rolling 12 month data I'm not sure what period my seasonality would be?  I tried applying a value of zero (thinking because my data was de-seasonlised) but Power BI doesn't accept a zero value in that field.

 

Regards,

Lee

Helpful resources

Announcements
Fabric Community Conference

Microsoft Fabric Community Conference

Join us at our first-ever Microsoft Fabric Community Conference, March 26-28, 2024 in Las Vegas with 100+ sessions by community experts and Microsoft engineering.

February 2024 Update Carousel

Power BI Monthly Update - February 2024

Check out the February 2024 Power BI update to learn about new features.

Fabric Career Hub

Microsoft Fabric Career Hub

Explore career paths and learn resources in Fabric.

Fabric Partner Community

Microsoft Fabric Partner Community

Engage with the Fabric engineering team, hear of product updates, business opportunities, and resources in the Fabric Partner Community.

Top Solution Authors