Forum Discussion
Issues with forecasting
Forecasting Issues
(I posted this in a seperate thread earlier but we figured I should post it here as well).
With the forecasting function in powerbi I have occasionally encountered an issue with a certain data set where the forecast did not produce a confidence interval for the first year. It happens at a seemingly random rate throughout that data set I havent noticed any trends and its not just data sets out of a certain subsection, but more often that not it does succesfully produce it.
Here are some examples
The First picture is an example of when it didnt succesfully forecast, the second one is an example of when it did. I've attached the excel forecasting info as well. The third and fourth are both examples of when it didnt but with just the data provided by excel vs powerbi.
If anyone knows anything as to why this may be happening, and how to fix it it would be greatly appreciated.
Thanks so much,
Kyle Miller
Here is a link to the actual data in some of examples of this problem (as well as some instances where, filtering or unfiltering the data does not result in a problem):
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1MVJJaWV4jjVMBTZ2iAhFuWchEjROTbsDUemtOLFHhPM
Anonymous Please see above post for the data you requested, and feel free to combine our two threads! We accidentally posted the same topic at http://community.powerbi.com/t5/Desktop/Forecasting-Issues/m-p/319536
Based on what I read at https://powerbi.microsoft.com/en-us/blog/describing-the-forecasting-models-in-power-view/ I suspect that the model used for the forecast is producing an error only when the data falls in a specific type of pattern. In other cases, the function it is applying does not have a problem. In our problematic cases, it must be choosing a particular forecast formula-of-best-fit that has a bug in it.
I opened a support ticket to address this.