Forum Discussion
How to do a forecast without loading forecast data? DAX measure or potentially R?
So, for your forecast, is what you want to show is the projected numbers for the next few months (each month) based solely upon the trend over the last few months?
There may be some techniques in my article on forecasting that you can use, although if the above is what you want, it will not apply 100%. That being said, my general opinion is that using solely internal data to do forecasts is generally not a good approach as the majority of businesses are impacted by external factors to a far greater degree than most generally realize.
Your article doesn't achieve what I am after - but it was a fantastic read and does have techniques that I may use in the coming week.
I agree with your opinion on forecasting based on internal data - but in this case we are trying to show projected growth based on no external impact - solely by the internal numbers (basically show a growth trend) as our proper forecast which sits inside the data set does include the external factors (but this isn't what we would like to show in this case as we would like a rolling forecast whereas the proper forecast is only done @ an annual level).
I will keep looking into this. If I find a solution, I will post here.
Having problems to understand your request:
"Basically, I would like to just be able to show an ongoing trend with a monthly growth rate without creating the data as preferably I would like to achieve this via a Direct Query connection to our accounting database (we have an annual budget, but I would like to show projected growth from any month with actuals information)."
1) Do you want to show a linear trend or also seasonality in it?
2) What do you mean with monthly growth rate? An additional factor that shall be applied on the trend-calculation or shall this simply represent the current trend ("based on the actuals we have so far, our sales have been growing 2% per month on average")
3) What do you mean with "without creating data" - not loading existing data into PowerBI or not creating any numbers in Power BI?
4) Why do you want a Direct Query connection - wouldn't you only want to import figures from closed months?
